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Retailers are planning for a winter shaped by an expected strong El Niño, but its regional effects could pull footwear demand in different directions. Some are adding rain boots and waterproof shoes; others are limiting orders amid uncertain forecasts and cautious spending.
U.S. shoe retailers are adjusting fall and winter plans as forecasts point to a potentially strong 2026-27 El Niño and sharply different weather across regions. Some stores are adding rain boots and waterproof styles, while others are keeping buys cautious because warmer conditions could delay boot purchases and storm risks could disrupt sales.
Rick Ravel, president of Karavel Shoes and Karavel Run in Austin, said his company began tracking weather last November and added Australian brand Merry People’s rain boots after more than 30 years without carrying rain boots. The footwear was due to arrive in the month covered by the report. Ravel said the retailer was up 36% in women’s boots for the season after increasing inventory from a conservative level the previous year. He also reported gains of more than 16% in women’s trail shoes and sandals and more than 6% in men’s, and said buying more waterproof styles appeared to be paying off.
Other retailers are taking a more guarded approach. Duffy Lee Baehr, owner of Baehr Feet Shoe Boutique in Spartanburg, South Carolina, said she was limiting stock partly because of economic uncertainty and weaker online sales. She has waterproof boots in store and is watching for any effect on demand. An independent retailer in the mid-Atlantic region told WWD that El Niño was not a major focus for the business, which is not directly exposed to the weather disruptions anticipated in some areas.
Forecasting and research firms expect the effects to vary by location. WWD cited Planalytics’ outlook for milder, less snowy conditions in the northern U.S. and cooler, wetter conditions in the South. The World Meteorological Organization, in a June 2 statement as reported by WWD, described 2026-27 as a historically strong Super El Niño event. WWD said the conditions could contribute to a very warm year while raising the possibility of a stormier winter and flood risks in parts of the West and South, especially along the Gulf Coast.
Weather Swings Could Reshape Boot Demand
The central retail risk is that the same seasonal outlook could reduce demand for some products while lifting it for others. Warm temperatures may lead shoppers to put off buying insulated or fashion boots, while rain, storms and flooding could increase interest in rubber boots and waterproof footwear in affected areas. The timing and geography of those conditions matter to retailers ordering inventory well before winter.
Weather can also affect sales beyond the product categories it directly benefits. Michael McNamara, chief executive of GhostCom Analytics, told WWD that hurricanes can boost demand for practical weather-ready shoes while disrupting or delaying sales across everyday and fashion footwear. He said an absence of hurricanes hitting major East Coast population centers would generally support a steadier sales pattern, though the season’s conditions remain uncertain.
For retailers, this creates a planning challenge: carrying too little rainwear could mean missing demand if wet weather arrives, while ordering too heavily could leave stores with stock that shoppers do not need. The issue also reaches brands associated with winter footwear. Researcher Gabriella Santaniello told WWD that a warmer winter could delay demand for boots and weatherproof styles, including potentially for UGG, but said it remains unclear whether delayed purchases would reduce total footwear spending or shift it to other categories.
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Retailers Are Placing Seasonal Orders
The report describes retailers making buying decisions months before the relevant weather is known. Ravel said seasonal forecasts become more accurate at roughly 90 days in advance, so his company may delay some sandal orders scheduled for February and early March while it watches for spring 2027 conditions. He said early indications suggested cooler, wetter weather in March followed by gradual drying through May, but those indications are not a settled forecast.
Analyst Blake Anderson of Jefferies also warned about possible pressure on UGG sales. As WWD reported, his comparison of state-level search interest for the December quarter put the Northeast at No. 1 for the brand, compared with No. 3 in 2015, the previous Super El Niño cited in the report. He said New York and New Jersey now rank among UGG’s most important states by store count, while forecasts for a warmer, wetter Northeast could weigh on demand there.
These are forecasts and retailer observations, not confirmation of how the winter will unfold or how shoppers will respond. El Niño is a broad climate pattern; its effects can differ by region, and seasonal conditions do not determine sales on their own.
“This is the first time we have added rain boots in over 30 years.”
— Rick Ravel, president of Karavel Shoes and Karavel Run
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Forecasts Leave Buying Risks Open
The expected strength and regional effects of El Niño do not establish exactly when or where winter storms, rain, warmth or flooding will occur. Seasonal forecasts can change, and the report does not provide a single settled outlook for every market. It is also unclear whether warmer conditions would lead shoppers to skip boot purchases, delay them, or spend on other footwear instead.
Retailers’ reported sales figures describe their own businesses and time periods; they do not establish a wider industry trend. The report also does not quantify the expected effect of El Niño on total footwear sales. Any effect on brands such as UGG remains an analyst concern rather than a confirmed outcome.
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Retailers Will Revisit Orders
Retailers will continue watching regional forecasts as the fall and winter buying season approaches. Ravel said the company may adjust sandal deliveries scheduled for February and early March as forecasts become clearer closer to the date. Stores will also be able to compare early-season sales with local conditions and decide whether to reorder rainwear or other weather-ready products.
The next indicators to watch are updated forecasts, the timing and location of significant storms, and whether shoppers buy boots earlier or wait for colder or wetter weather. Until those factors become clearer, retailers’ inventory decisions are likely to remain varied rather than follow a single nationwide response.
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Key Questions
What is the expected effect of El Niño on U.S. winter weather?
The outlook cited by WWD calls for milder, less snowy conditions in the northern U.S. and cooler, wetter conditions in the South. It also points to possible storm and flood risks in parts of the West and South. These are forecasts, not guarantees.
Could El Niño delay boot purchases?
It could. A warmer-than-usual winter may reduce the immediate need for insulated or weatherproof boots, and analyst Gabriella Santaniello told WWD that shoppers may wait until they need those products. Whether purchases would be delayed or lost altogether is not yet clear.
Why are some retailers buying more rain boots?
Some retailers are preparing for wetter conditions and the possibility of increased storms. Rick Ravel of Karavel Shoes said his company added rain boots after tracking weather forecasts, while also increasing its orders of waterproof footwear.
Have retailers confirmed that El Niño will increase footwear sales?
No. Retailers and analysts describe possible changes in demand, but the report does not establish a confirmed industrywide sales increase or decline. Outcomes will depend on local weather, timing, consumer spending and how shoppers respond.
Source: rss
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